On the larger time frame, Bitcoin still shows signs of a bearish market, having recorded a 21.7% drop from its all-time high (ATH) of over $109,000 set in January.
Yet, upon a closer look, it’s clear that Bitcoin is gradually rebounding, having surged 6.8% in the past week, inching closer to the psychological $90,000 milestone with a current trading price of just above $85,000.
The latest insights from CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan provide a backdrop for this cautious optimism. In his article titled “Why does this cycle feel so boring?”, Dan pointed out that, in contrast to previous bull cycles characterized by rapid rallies and heightened interest from short-term traders, the current cycle remains relatively quiet.
What Makes the Current Cycle Unique
One key indicator supporting Dan’s observation is the significantly lower percentage of Bitcoin held for short durations (1 week to 1 month), indicating reduced engagement from new market participants. Dan attributes this change in behavior to two major structural factors. The first is the macroeconomic landscape.
Unlike the aggressive liquidity injections and near-zero interest rates seen during 2020–2021, the current market is facing tight liquidity and elevated interest rates, which limits the flow and pace of capital inflows. The second structural change is the shift in market leadership from retail traders to institutional investors.
The approval and increasing acceptance of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have altered the dynamics of capital movement in this space, resulting in more measured and gradual price shifts.
This has led to a more cautious market evolution, contrasting with the exuberance typically associated with past cycles. Dan emphasized that while some on-chain metrics might hint at a cycle peak, the existing structure may suggest a prolonged and steady market evolution.
He advocated for long-term patience instead of short-term speculation, stating:
In times like this, what matters most isn’t chasing quick pumps—it’s understanding the slower structure and having the patience to stay with it.
Bitcoin On-Chain Metrics Indicate Strength Amid Unusual Cycle
Further supporting this long-term view, another CryptoQuant analyst, elcryptotavo, pointed out that a crucial on-chain metric remains robust. His analysis reveals that over 70% of the Bitcoin supply is currently profitable—a level historically linked to price stability.
This metric measures the percentage of circulating BTC that has a cost basis below the current market price. A high supply-in-profit ratio, especially above the 70% threshold, has historically provided a foundation for further upward movement.
Elcryptotavo also mentioned that the objective is to elevate this metric towards the 80% level, which would reinforce bullish momentum and potentially uphold the current upward trend.
If this level is achieved alongside improving macroeconomic conditions and ongoing ETF inflows, Bitcoin may experience renewed strength, even without speculative fervor. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
