The cryptocurrency market has shown an ambiguous trajectory in 2025, mirroring the unpredictable landscape of the digital asset sector. Currently, Bitcoin, the foremost cryptocurrency by market capitalization, is approximately 24% below its peak price of $108,786, which was attained in January 2025.
As this primary cryptocurrency continues to distance itself from its all-time high, inquiries have emerged regarding the current phase of the market cycle. Notably, recent on-chain data provides some clarity on the present condition of the Bitcoin market and the reactions of its participants.
Are Experienced BTC Investors Expecting a Price Increase?
In a Quicktake article on the CryptoQuant platform, analyst Axel Adler Jr. shared insights into the current Bitcoin cycle, focusing on the behavior of a crucial segment of investors. According to Adler Jr., seasoned BTC investors are resuming their accumulation of the leading cryptocurrency.
He noted that these experienced BTC holders have engaged in four distinct phases of accumulation (January 2023, October 2023, October 2024, March 2025) during the current cycle. Conversely, their selling activities have peaked at four different intervals: January 2024, April 2024, July 2024, and January 2025.
A key on-chain indicator in this context is the Value Days Destroyed (VDD) metric, which monitors the spending patterns of long-term investors. The chart below illustrates that the VDD has been consistently declining since early 2025.
Source: CryptoQuant
Building on the chart, Adler Jr. highlighted three significant characteristics that outline the current phase of the Bitcoin cycle. Firstly, seasoned investors, who previously sold their BTC at local highs, have now altered their approach to one of holding and accumulating their assets.
Furthermore, the Value Days Destroyed metric indicates a lack of substantial selling pressure, implying that experienced traders are hesitant to take profits at the present Bitcoin price. Historically, periods marked by low VDD values have often preceded notable price increases as investors accumulate in anticipation of a surge.
In summary, this favorable change in the behavior of seasoned Bitcoin holders indicates potential for price growth for Bitcoin in the medium term.
Bitcoin Price Overview
At the time of this writing, Bitcoin’s price stands at approximately $83,200, reflecting a decline of over 2% in the last 24 hours. Data from CoinGecko shows that the leading cryptocurrency has also dropped about 2% on a weekly basis.
BTC price recovers to the $83,000 level within the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
Featured image generated by DALL-E, chart from TradingView
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