The Trump administration is exploring the possibility of issuing direct payments to millions of Americans in the coming year.
If the plan goes ahead, households could receive checks of up to $5,000, referred to as “DOGE dividend” payments, once the non-governmental Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), led by billionaire Elon Musk, completes its work in July 2026.
President Donald Trump recently expressed his enthusiasm for the dividend checks while speaking to reporters on Air Force One. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Kevin Hassett, director of the White House’s National Economic Council, have also indicated their support, although no formal policy or legislative proposals have been made public.
DOGE has been assigned the task of identifying wasteful federal spending, setting a target to uncover $2 trillion in spending cuts by July 2026, when the agency is scheduled to be disbanded. To put this in perspective, the U.S. annual budget is approximately $6.7 trillion, with two-thirds earmarked for mandated spending on federal programs like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.
If DOGE achieves its goal, 20% of the savings—amounting to $400 billion—would be allocated for DOGE refunds. Congressional approval would be necessary for these payments.
The concept originated from James Fishback, a DOGE supporter linked to the Trump administration, who shared a viral four-page proposal on Musk’s social media platform, X. This caught Musk’s attention, leading him to propose the idea to Trump.
Here’s what you need to know about the potential for stimulus-style tax refund checks from DOGE.
Are ‘DOGE dividend’ checks likely?
Despite the proposal’s surge in popularity on social media and apparent support from the president and his economic advisors, many experts are skeptical about the likelihood of the checks being realized as envisioned.
The initial challenge is economic. The proposed $5,000 check is predicated on DOGE achieving its goal of eliminating $2 trillion in federal waste. Musk has expressed doubts about this feasibility, referring to $2 trillion as the “best case outcome” in a January interview.
“You need to have a buffer,” he noted. “If you aim for $2 trillion, there’s a good chance you might only achieve $1 trillion.”
According to DOGE, the cost-cutting initiative reportedly saved around $55 billion during Trump’s first month in office. To stay on track for its goal, DOGE would need to save over $110 billion monthly.
“The size of the proposed checks is disproportionate to the expected cuts,” comments Ernie Tedeschi, economics director at Yale University’s Budget Lab.
The second challenge is political. Much like previous stimulus checks, any direct payments to Americans would require Congressional approval.
The proposal has already met resistance from some Republican lawmakers. House Speaker Mike Johnson indicated a preference for using the funds for U.S. debt payments. Likewise, Rep. Eric Burlison (R-Mo.) remarked that the U.S. is not currently in a position to distribute checks to citizens.
Ultimately, Tedeschi observes that it remains too early to determine if DOGE checks are achievable.
Who would be eligible?
Fishback, who also serves as CEO of investment firm Azoria, states that the refund payments would be directed to households that pay federal taxes.
Approximately 70% of Americans have a federal tax liability, suggesting that about 80 to 90 million households could qualify for a check based on this criterion.
Many low-income Americans do not owe federal income taxes due to deductions and credits, which means they would not be eligible for a check based on Fishback’s criteria.
This differs significantly from the stimulus checks distributed during the pandemic, which excluded higher-income earners.
Would the checks trigger inflation?
Numerous politicians and economists have pointed to pandemic-era stimulus checks as a significant factor contributing to the current inflationary trend in the U.S.
The three rounds of stimulus payments, largely issued over three years, amounted to roughly $815 billion.
With policymakers still grappling with inflation, many economic observers are questioning the potential impact of injecting $400 billion simultaneously through $5,000 checks on consumer prices.
When asked if DOGE checks could lead to inflation, Hassett of Trump’s National Economic Council responded emphatically, “absolutely not,” arguing that the DOGE checks would come from money already allocated for government spending. Treasury Secretary Bessent echoed this sentiment, asserting that “everything the Trump administration is doing will be disinflationary.”
However, economists outside the Trump administration are less convinced. Nonpartisan Federal Reserve policymakers have expressed concerns that new tariffs from the Trump administration could reignite inflation, according to minutes from their most recent meeting, where they decided to maintain interest rates.
Given that tariffs and their associated threats are already affecting U.S. supply chains, a sudden influx of $5,000 checks into millions of households could potentially escalate consumer demand—essentially encouraging individuals to spend while businesses struggle to stock shelves.
As observed during the pandemic, challenges in the supply chain along with increased consumer demand can create a perfect storm for inflation.
Certain items may face especially heightened price increases. “Consumers are likely to use lump-sum checks for significant durable goods,” Tedeschi points out, referring to major purchases like vehicles or appliances. These items are among those predicted to see price hikes due to tariffs and ongoing supply-chain problems. Increased demand for such goods would worsen the situation.
Another avenue through which the dividend checks could drive inflation, Tedeschi notes, is if DOGE fails to meet its cost-saving objective. For instance, if the department opts to distribute the full $5,000 without achieving the $2 trillion target, it could subsequently inflate prices on essential goods.
“This could happen,” Tedeschi states, “if the administration overestimates DOGE’s effectiveness.”
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