Key Insights
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently progressing through a larger impulsive cycle after recently concluding a corrective ABC pattern.
Analysis of both higher and lower time frames indicates that BTC may be in the initial phase of Wave 5, although bearish RSI divergences on intraday charts suggest a need for tempered optimism.
Below, we delve into both macro and micro structures to assess BTC’s potential trajectory.
BTC Price Overview
The 4-hour chart indicates that BTC has successfully completed its wave 4 correction, characterized by an ABC formation within a descending channel, with a low reached around $76,700.
The breakout from this channel confirms the initiation of wave 5, with BTC currently trading above the 0.382 retracement at $86,774, which now serves as crucial support.
This bullish movement is corroborated by a rising RSI that is nearing overbought territory without showing divergence in this timeframe.
The next resistance level for BTC is aimed at $94,795 (0.236 retracement of the preceding decline).
A successful breach of this level is likely to thrust the price into new all-time high territory, challenging the macro high of $107,760.
Conversely, robust support is established at $80,292 (0.5 Fib), and a breakdown below this could jeopardize the bullish structure.
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Overall, the macro situation leans towards the upside, as wave 5 generally leads to price discovery phases.
BTC Price Forecast
The 1-hour chart reveals that BTC has constructed a five-wave impulse sequence, with the current price nearing the peak of wave (v).
Importantly, the RSI has exhibited multiple bearish divergences, which indicates weakening momentum as the price approaches the $88,000 mark.
This suggests a potential short-term reversal or corrective pullback before the next impulsive rally.
The rising wedge formation further supports the likelihood of a near-term dip.
A corrective move might retrace to $86,774 (0.382 Fib), with deeper support available at $80,292 (0.5 Fib).
However, if BTC holds above $86,774 and convincingly breaks $88,000, the next target for wave 3 of the higher-degree fifth wave would be $94,795.
This projection could extend toward $107,760, signifying the 1.0 Fibonacci extension of waves 1–3.
Invalidation of the bullish short-term structure occurs if a breakdown happens below $80,292, indicating that wave 4 remains incomplete.
Until then, short-term corrections are likely to remain shallow within a broader bullish context.
Bitcoin finds itself in a critical zone, facing resistance with diminishing intraday momentum; however, it is bolstered by a strong macro structure.
The forthcoming sessions will determine if bulls can advance towards all-time highs.
Key Levels to Monitor
- Immediate Resistance: $88,000 (peak area of wave (v)).
- Key Resistance: $94,795 (0.236 Fib retracement).
- Major Target: $107,760 (macro Fibonacci extension).
- Immediate Support: $86,774 (0.382 Fibonacci retracement).
- Critical Support: $80,292 (0.5 retracement / structural support).
- Short-Term Target for Wave 5: $94,795 to $102,000.
- Invalidation Zone: Below $80,292, negating the bullish case for wave (v).
Disclaimer:
The contents of this article are for informational purposes only. It should not be regarded as financial advice. We do not guarantee the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments carry risks, and past performance is no indicator of future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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