Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a decline of up to 21.40% over the past month after reaching its peak of approximately $109,300.
Nonetheless, some analysts maintain a positive outlook, predicting a continuation of the bullish trend into 2025.
BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView
Wyckoff Reaccumulation Model Points to $100K Retest
The Wyckoff reaccumulation model is a technical framework characterized by consolidation and accumulation phases occurring after a significant upward trend.
This model typically unfolds across nine critical stages:
Preliminary Supply (PSY), Buying Climax (BC), Automatic Reaction (AR), Secondary Test (ST), Spring, Test, Last Point of Support (LPS), and the concluding phase—Sign of Strength (SOS).
Wyckoff re-accumulation model illustration.
As of February 26, Bitcoin has entered the “Test” phase of its Wyckoff pattern, according to independent market analyst SuperBro.
During this phase, Bitcoin is retesting its Spring phase low of approximately $85,950 as support, seeking to confirm a bullish trajectory toward its new Last Point of Support (LPS) around $96,780.
BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView/SuperBro
The Wyckoff reaccumulation model anticipates the initiation of a new uptrend cycle once Bitcoin reaches the ultimate stage, the Sign of Strength (SOS). This would necessitate a successful retest of the model’s peak near $106,700, along with a definitive breakout above the $100,000 mark.
A comparable pattern observed in August 2024 triggered a price surge from $53,400 (Spring support) to $74,000 (LPS).
Interestingly, analyst Vijay Boyapati recalled a similar period in 2024 when Bitcoin consolidated within the $50,000-70,000 price range for eight months, only to break out in November after Donald Trump secured the US presidential election.
Source: Vijay Boyapati
He predicts that Bitcoin will undergo another extended period of consolidation prior to a significant rise, asserting that the “top is not in” yet.
Related: M2 money supply could trigger a ‘parabolic’ Bitcoin rally — Analyst
Is Bitcoin Already Reaching Its Bottom?
Weekly charts for Bitcoin suggest further price drops are likely in the coming weeks.
Notably, BTC’s previous corrections from local peaks have steered the price toward its 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA; marked in red). Currently, this EMA stands around $76,390, reflecting a 15% decline from current price levels.
BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView
Interestingly, the $76,390 level coincides with a multi-year ascending trendline support, which has been limiting BTC’s downward movements since November 2022. Meanwhile, the relative strength index (RSI) reading of 52.65 is neutral, suggesting there is potential for further declines in the upcoming weeks.
A significant close beneath this support confluence could intensify the sell-off, leading to downside targets at approximately $57,690 and $48,170, the latter aligning with the 200-week EMA.
Related: Bitcoin could be headed for $70K ‘goblin town’ on ETF exodus: Hayes
Conversely, a rebound from Bitcoin’s interim support zone between $85,000 and $90,000—or from the stronger support confluence near $76,390—could set the stage for a move toward $100,000, which aligns with the Wyckoff LPS target.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.
